HL 1 Biology

5.2b Greenhouse Effect

AA-CC: 188-92

 

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Uncertainty in temperature rise projections (p.190)

1) AIFI

2) The minimum is 1.1 degrees Celsius,  Maximum 5.9 degrees Celsius

3) 1.8 degrees Celsius ( 4 – 2.2 = 1.8)

4) Comparing the forecasts for arctic temperature with those for global average temperatures, the temperature in the Arctic is higher than the global average temperatures.  Specifically, it is 1.8 degrees Celsius in the global average yet in the Arctic, it is 2.1 degrees Celsius.

5) Uncertainties that effect forecasts for the average global temperatures over the next 100 years include the positive feedback cycles, like the ice caps in the polar melting or an increase in the cloud cover.

6) It would depend on whether data used by centers is the same or independently gathered, or if there are more centers it would mean more validity. Also, similar logic applies to positive impact of the sample size on certainty in IA experiements.

7) According to precautionary principle strong action called for because consequences of inaction are potentially catastrophic. Costs of mitigating should be borne equally. Developing nations need access to carbon production to achieve higher standard of living and it will require greater reductions in developed world.

8) Forces acting in support of avoiding economic as risk are more powerful, thus it is possible to balance environmental risks wiht socio-economic and livelihoood risks. Some shifts in economic activity possible, as local versus global economies. Shift to greater degree of subsistence activities.  And fossil fuel shortage may aid shift.

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